Diagnosis ready.
Below: the leak, the priority action, and what not to change.
Your losing trades run too far before you close them.
A hard stop-loss at -25% would have saved about $1,389 on your last 414 closed trades.
On average, each trade loses money. The math is against you, not just luck.
Most of your trades lose money, and it adds up.
Recent (7d) vs historical (30d)
No strong drift pattern detected, metrics evolution below.
| Metric | 30d | 7d | 24h | Drift |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Winrate | 20% | 18% | 20% | ↓degrading |
| Avg-loss | -0.2498 SOL | -0.3105 SOL | -0.3499 SOL | ↑degrading |
| Frequency | 13.8/day | 18.1/day | 83.0/day | ↑degrading |
| Size avg | 1.13 SOL | 1.57 SOL | 1.64 SOL | ↑degrading |
| Hold asym | 0.3× | 0.3× | 0.4× | ↓improving |
Negative: average trade loses money. The fix is in risk-reward, not winrate.
Loser hold 0.3× winner hold — within healthy range.
Your average loser is smaller than your winners, but a few oversized losers are the real drain. Capping your biggest entries is your highest-impact lever.
Only 23% of winners exit < 2m — pacing looks intentional.
Counterfactual PnL on your last 414 closed trades
What your PnL would have been if you had applied this fix mechanically to the closed pumpfun trades in this window.
Simulation caps individual trade losses at the chosen stop level and resizes losers to the size cap. Assumes the cap would have triggered before larger movements. Does not account for behavioral re-entry, tilt-driven re-trading, or price-reversal scenarios where the trader would have manually overridden the stop.
Estimated PnL by hold window
Your fast flips are the leak. Trades you held under 10 minutes lost about 62.6 SOL and won only 15% of the time, while the trades you held longer won 39% of the time. The few you held over an hour were your only winners.
Where the estimated PnL bled most
| Token | Trades | Est. PnL | |
|---|---|---|---|
C9UM3B…pump C9UM3B…pump | 6 | -7.3961 -$608 | |
9Jp7sV…pump 9Jp7sV…pump | 1 | -3.6817 -$309 | |
2jCt3h…pump 2jCt3h…pump | 2 | -2.5514 -$224 | |
5wK1yX…pump 5wK1yX…pump | 1 | -2.2403 -$185 | |
2BYAaw…pump 2BYAaw…pump | 2 | -2.2241 -$182 | |
HopMHH…pump HopMHH…pump | 1 | -2.1703 -$183 | |
FJnUTC…pump FJnUTC…pump | 3 | -2.0404 -$168 | |
8c3JdT…pump 8c3JdT…pump | 4 | -1.8406 -$153 |
Where the estimated PnL gained most
| Token | Trades | Est. PnL | |
|---|---|---|---|
CbyQSD…pump CbyQSD…pump | 1 | +3.7877 +$332 | |
CBStjr…pump CBStjr…pump | 5 | +1.6262 +$139 | |
7N9LXf…pump 7N9LXf…pump | 2 | +1.1888 +$99.88 | |
HGvGqN…pump HGvGqN…pump | 1 | +0.8596 +$72.58 | |
4iAZMw…pump 4iAZMw…pump | 2 | +0.8546 +$72.04 | |
BZPRp1…pump BZPRp1…pump | 4 | +0.7002 +$59.65 | |
7kqKEu…pump 7kqKEu…pump | 5 | +0.6923 +$61.61 | |
B8bsWa…pump B8bsWa…pump | 2 | +0.6846 +$57.51 |
When PnL happens (UTC)
- ›Weekly bleed: −14.13 SOL/week.Weekly bleed: -$1,184/week.
- ›Your avg-loss is 0.9× your avg-win.
- ›Break-even avg-loss: max 0.0668 SOL.
→ Cut your losses
Place a hard stop-loss at −25% on every new entry. Your current avg-loss is 0.2498 SOL — bring it down to 0.0668 SOL max.
Place a hard stop-loss at -25% on every new entry. Your current avg-loss is $21. Bring it down to $6 max.
If you hold stop discipline for 30 days, expectancy moves from −0.1463 SOL/trade toward ~0 (break-even).
If you hold stop discipline for 30 days, expectancy moves from -$12/trade toward ~0 (break-even).
Do not widen the stop on a "feeling" trade. Pattern: hold-asymmetry 0.3× — losers held vs winners.
Diagnosis based on full 30d window
Estimated PnL only · Analytics only · Not financial advice
You won't be charged again for this wallet and period.
- › Estimated PnL only. Wallet-only analysis can be inaccurate because of fees, partial sells, migrations, swaps, MEV, and open positions.